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Population
is purely a Javanese (and to a lesser extent, Balinese) problem.
Thus it's an Indonesian problem. With a birthrate of 1 %x million
people per year, Java is a precise working model of the Malthusian
Theory in which the positive check of death operates to keep the
total population within the means of subsistence. In 1805 Java
had a population of only 5 million. While Asia as a whole doubled
its population between 1800 and 1950, Java's increased 7 times.
Now Java has 80 million people in an area about the size of the
state of New York and will most likely double its present population
in 20 years, becoming a virtual island city. 65% of Indonesia's
total population is concentrated on this 1000 km long grossly
overpopulated island, its land area amounting to only 7% of the
total land surface of Indonesia. Java today has Indonesia's biggest
and most crowded cities, yet 85% of it is iural. It has the densest
agricultural population in the world with over 1500 people per
square km, one vast village. Because the countryside is so economically
depressed and politically insecure Indonesians surge into the
cities.
But
even the countryside is now feeling the pressure; the incredible
absorption capacity of the Javanese village finally breaking down.
If population growth and urban immigration levels continue at
the current rate, Jakarta's population alone is expected to grow
to more than 21 million by the end of this century. Java's population
leaps ahead of measures to limit it. The government has begun
family-planning programs and the new Rp5 coin, the lowest monetary
unit and circulated widely amongst the rural masses, has on the
reverse side a neat couple with two kids and the motto Keluarga
berencana menuju rakyat sejahtera ('Family Planning leads to a
Prosperous People'). There are folk traditions used in limiting
family size, and in some Javanese villages elections for the 'King
of the Condom' and the 'Queen of the Diaphragm' are held. But
the absence of a welfare system or of any social security program
almost necessitates having children who'll take care of you when
you grow old. The Javanese give as the solution to the over population
and erosion crisis the magic word, transmigrasi. These transmigration
schemes, the shifting out of Java's overpopulation to resettlement
agricultural camps in the outer islands, have never really worked.
It's like transplanting a malignant cancer from the breast onto
the leg. There will be gigantic problems with regards to education
and natural resources in the years to come.
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